Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
